Kurdish parties risk split after parliament meets without PUK

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) secured 39 seats in the October 20, 2024, regional elections, a lead of 16 over its main rival. Despite this majority, the party failed to form a government for two years, a delay that has now triggered a political standoff in northern Iraq.

Tensions escalated when the KDP reactivated the regional parliament on Wednesday, ending a two-year dormancy. The session proceeded without the participation of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which holds 23 seats. Bafel Talabani, the PUK leader, responded by withdrawing his party from the government. Analysts now warn that the region faces the prospect of two rival administrations operating from separate cities.

The KDP, led by Massoud Barzani, is based in Erbil and Dohuk. The PUK is rooted in Sulaimaniyah. Traditionally, the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government has functioned on a power-sharing model between these two dominant forces. The current crisis marks a sharp break from that norm, as the parties have failed to reach an agreement on executive leadership.

Yasin Aziz, an independent Kurdish politician, described the situation as painful and rapid. He stated that the spectre of two administrations is now very close, with the outlines of such a scenario becoming clear. Aziz argued that the differences between the parties have caused a breakdown in relations. He noted that activating parliament without the PUK deepened the historical divide between the groups.

Subhi Mandalawi, a KDP member, placed the blame for the impasse on the PUK. He said the PUK refused to form a government, counting on the KDP being unable to secure the legal quorum to convene parliament. Mandalawi noted that a similar session was held without the PUK in 2018, after which the party joined the government. He called the current obstruction unacceptable and harmful to the region domestically, regionally, and internationally. He dismissed threats of division as hasty and unrealistic, stating that there is little risk of renewed fighting.

Mahmood Khoshnaw, a senior PUK official, warned that convening parliament without his party departed from the principle of partnership. He stated that if a prime minister is appointed in Erbil, the PUK will take the same step in Sulaimaniyah. Khoshnaw said the region is heading towards chaos unless the crisis is addressed rationally. He emphasized that the PUK will mirror the actions of the KDP in its own base city.

The region has governed itself since the Gulf War of 1990 and 1991, following the establishment of a US-led no-fly zone. The constitution enacted after the 2003 US-led invasion recognized the Kurdish region as a federal entity with its own legislative, executive, and judicial powers. There is precedent for dual rule, as the parties formed separate local governments in Erbil and Sulaimaniyah during conflicts in the 1990s.

Ramadan Albadran, an independent political analyst and constitutional affairs expert, said the dispute is a deep political crisis rather than a constitutional issue. He noted that the Iraqi constitution provides no mechanism for dividing the region into zones of influence. Albadran stated that if the PUK moves to separate Sulaimaniyah from the Kurdistan region, it would not be a legal or constitutional act. He added that such a step without a mandate from the elected regional government would be closer to an act of rebellion.