Abu Dhabi Talks: Russia, US, and Ukraine Meet Amid Skepticism
Negotiators from three nations gather for a second round of peace talks this week, while European allies prepare to observe the proceedings.
By Alexei Brooks ·
Russia currently occupies approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, a figure that defines the stakes for the trilateral talks scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. Officials from Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington are set to meet in the United Arab Emirates capital to discuss ending a conflict that has lasted nearly five years. The timing of the summit is complicated by recent diplomatic friction, including a new agreement between the United States and Russia to purchase diesel fuel. Critics argue this deal provides Moscow with the revenue necessary to sustain its military operations against Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump has recently shifted the burden of failure onto Kyiv. He stated last month that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must want to settle the war, or the outcome will be severe. Trump also claimed on Thursday that the war is close to being settled, a position that contrasts with the skepticism held by many analysts. Despite the US President’s push for a deal, Europe is not formally part of the trilateral framework, though it is preparing to send observers.
The composition of the delegations highlights the gravity of the discussions. The US team is led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence chief, heads the Kyiv delegation alongside David Arakhamia and Kyrylo Budanov. The Russian side is led by Vladimir Medinsky, former Culture Minister, with diplomat Mikhail Galuzin and spy chief Igor Kostyukov also present. A point of contention remains the role of European officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that European officials would not participate, a stance that appeared to conflict with comments from French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. Barrot stated that representatives from France, Britain, Germany, NATO, and the European Commission would be present at the November 10 and 11 meeting.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian member of parliament, expressed doubt about the potential for tangible progress. He told Al Jazeera that Vladimir Putin has no intention of negotiating seriously and remains focused on the destruction of Ukraine. Arkady Moshes, a political scientist at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, noted that Ukraine’s sovereignty is at risk. He argued that it would be difficult for Kyiv to accept a peace agreement that limits its ability to choose security alliances or restricts its military.
Matthew Boyse, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, identified territory and security guarantees as the primary sticking points. He described Putin’s position as demanding the maximum and waiting for others to compromise. Boyse noted that the Kremlin views the post-1991 European security order with suspicion and has opposed NATO expansion. Anders Olofsgard of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics pointed out that Jared Kushner explicitly stated that NATO would remain central to European collective defense. Olofsgard suggested that Trump, now a lame-duck president following midterm election losses, may push harder for a ceasefire or peace deal in his remaining two years in office.
Historical precedents offer little comfort to those hoping for a quick resolution. Olofsgard noted that the only period when a breakthrough seemed likely was at the end of March 2022, during initial talks in Istanbul. At that time, Ukraine was more willing to make concessions regarding NATO membership and the return of Crimea. However, those talks failed due to battlefield developments and incompatible views on land concessions. Analysts agree that without a clear security guarantor, similar to the US troop presence in South Korea following the 1953 armistice, any agreement may lack durability.
