Israelis back sanctions change in poll

For the average Israeli household, the prospect of financial penalties tied to West Bank construction is becoming a voting issue. A survey conducted last month by the social research group aChord reveals that public opinion on foreign sanctions is shifting. The data suggests that while many Israelis dislike specific trade bans, a large majority supports adjusting government policy to prevent the international community from imposing harsher measures.

The first key finding is that the United Kingdom’s recent actions did not directly decide the recent general election. The UK government imposed a trade ban on goods from illegal settlements in September. Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary, faced criticism for this move, with opponents arguing it would push voters toward Benjamin Netanyahu. The aChord poll contradicts this claim. Among supporters of the Netanyahu bloc, three-quarters said UK sanctions did not affect their vote. Those who did change their vote shifted in both directions, resulting in no net effect on the election outcome.

The second key point involves the level of public awareness regarding these new rules. Just over three-quarters of all respondents, or 76 percent, had heard of the UK government’s announcement. However, 18 percent only knew the broad headline. Of those aware of the policy, four-fifths correctly understood that the ban applies to the West Bank and not the entire country. This clarity seems to have reduced some initial fears that the measure would extend to all of Israel.

The third key finding shows a split in how different political groups view the issue. Seventy-one percent of voters in the opposition Change bloc, which backs Gadi Eisenkot, believe the government should adapt its settlements policy to avoid escalating sanctions. In contrast, only 14 percent of Netanyahu bloc supporters agree. Most supporters of the prime minister’s camp said the government should continue its current policy regardless of the cost. Among the general public, 50 percent support adjusting the settlement and construction policy to avoid international isolation.

Context for these opinions lies in the personal economic stakes voters perceive. The survey indicates that opposition to the settlement policy grows when voters believe they will suffer a high personal price. Only 36 percent of all respondents agreed that the policy should continue if sanctions on banks financing construction led to higher interest rates or difficulties in transferring money abroad. A majority of Israelis, 52 percent, support sanctions on individual violent settlers, provided the measures target only those acting violently. However, 70 percent of Netanyahu bloc supporters oppose foreign sanctions in all circumstances. Support for a policy change is strongest among supporters of the Arab parties. Hannah Weisfeld, director of the British-Jewish organization Yachad, said the research illustrates that the Israeli public recognizes the international community may try to create incentives for a policy shift from the outside.

The poll also measured support for the specific trade ban. Overall, 63 percent of all surveyed individuals opposed the ban on importing goods from illegal settlements. Twenty-six percent supported the measure or said they would if it were underlined that the ban would not apply to goods from outside settlements. For supporters of the Change bloc, relations with the West were important or very important to 60 percent of those deciding their vote. This factor ranked fifth in a list of six voting motives. Only 30 percent of Netanyahu bloc supporters said relations with the West mattered in the same way.