AP Voter Poll: Young and Low-Income Voters Swing to Democrats in 2026 Midterms
A survey of over 100,000 voters shows a reversal in support for several key demographic groups compared to the 2024 presidential election.
By Arjun Weber ·
Democratic candidates captured a large share of voters under 30, Hispanic voters, and Black men in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new AP Voter Poll. The survey indicates that many demographic groups that shifted toward President Donald Trump in 2024 moved back to the Democratic column this year.
The AP Voter Poll surveyed more than 100,000 registered voters across all 50 states. Data collection took place from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and from October 22 to November 3 in the remaining states. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
Voters under the age of 30 showed the most pronounced change in allegiance. In 2024, this group was roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the 2026 House races, about 70 percent of voters under 30 supported the Democratic candidate, while only about 30 percent voted for the Republican. Approximately 60 percent of young voters said they chose their House candidate to express opposition to Trump. This demographic represented only about 10 percent of the national electorate, limiting their total impact despite the sharp shift.
Hispanic voters also reversed their 2024 trend. About 60 percent of Hispanic voters nationally backed the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly 40 percent who supported Trump two years ago. This pattern appeared in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. In that contest, about 60 percent of Hispanic voters supported Talarico, compared to 30 percent for Paxton. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody won reelection with less than half of the Hispanic vote, despite Trump winning that group decisively in 2024.
Black men voted overwhelmingly for Democrats, with only about 10 percent supporting the Republican House candidate. This is a drop from the roughly 25 percent who supported Trump in 2024. In Georgia, about 90 percent of Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms, who became the first Black woman elected as governor. In Florida, about 25 percent of Black men voted for Republican Byron Donalds, who was elected as the state's first Black governor.
Moderate voters and those with lower incomes also leaned Democratic. About two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, up from about 60 percent who backed Harris. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 70 percent of moderates, a rise from the roughly 50 percent Harris received. Voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic House candidate by a majority of over 50 percent, whereas they were evenly split in 2024. About 60 percent of these low-income voters cited the cost of living as a crucial factor in their decision.
The poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News, and Versant. It blends probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters.
