Michigan Senate race heads to Election Day with $300 million spent
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers in polls by a single-digit margin, but early voting data suggests a tight contest that may not be decided until Wednesday.
By Alexei Brooks ·
Early voting is underway across Michigan, where hundreds of thousands of residents have already cast ballots for the United States Senate. Election day is Tuesday, November 3, and polls in the state will close at 8:00 p.m. local time. The result could be delayed until the following Wednesday if the race remains close, a pattern seen in previous Michigan contests.
The contest pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a 42-year-old public health advocate of Egyptian descent, against Republican Mike Rogers, a 63-year-old former U.S. Representative. El-Sayed currently holds a narrow lead in most recent polls, ranging from four to seven percentage points. However, the Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up, and both campaigns warn that the outcome may hinge on a few thousand votes.
The race has attracted substantial financial attention, with nearly $300 million spent to date. This spending has made it one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. On the Republican side, Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc. have been major contributors. On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC and its affiliate WINSENATE have led expenditures. Pro-Israel groups, including AIPAC, have also injected millions into the race to support Rogers.
Abdul El-Sayed’s position on Israel has become a central issue in the campaign. He has accused Israel of carrying out a genocide in Gaza and linked U.S. foreign aid to domestic needs like healthcare. Rogers, a close ally of President Donald Trump, has pledged unconditional support for Israel and accused El-Sayed of prioritizing Palestine over Michigan. AIPAC’s election arm, United Democracy Project, has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailers against El-Sayed and funneled $9 million to a Republican group supporting Rogers.
The candidacy of El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim U.S. senator if elected, has drawn both praise and criticism. Former Democratic state legislator Cynthia Johnson told Al Jazeera that negative campaigning around his religion and ethnicity makes the election vital for her community. She stated, “What’s really at stake is life or death. Our children are being exposed to some very negative, nasty things.” In contrast, Rogers supporter Rob Cortis said outside a rally that if the seat flips to a Muslim candidate, “America was never intended for that.”
Democratic Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to El-Sayed three months ago, has recently criticized her party’s nominee. Stevens said she would still vote for El-Sayed but criticized his stance on Israel. Her engagement has drawn scrutiny from some Democrats. In a statement, El-Sayed said, “Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago,” while noting that defeating the Republican candidate should be the priority.
The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters. A loss for Democrats in Michigan would make it difficult for them to gain control of the Senate. A victory for Rogers would secure the seat for Republicans for at least six years. The race is also viewed as a test of progressive electoral viability in a swing state, which could influence Democratic strategy for the 2028 presidential cycle.
