Midterm math: How parties fight the historical trend of losing seats

History suggests that the party of the sitting president faces a difficult path in midterm elections. This pattern, where the majority party almost always loses seats, is a central concern for strategists on both sides of the aisle as voters head to the polls today. The Associated Press notes that this midterm election serves as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term. The outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of his administration. Both Democrats and Republicans are employing distinct strategies to either maintain their power or seize it, aware that the historical tide often turns against the incumbents.

Republicans entered the day bracing for potential losses in the House while fighting to hold the Senate. The Associated Press reports that one or two seats could tip the balance in either chamber. Republicans hold 218 seats in the House, with Democrats holding 214 and one independent. To maintain their majority, Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats. Democrats need a net gain of three districts to take control. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with the minority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority, a hurdle that makes the current composition precarious for the minority party.

Both parties attempted to influence the landscape through redistricting and new congressional maps. Six states, including California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas, are using new maps following mid-decade redistricting. Ohio is also utilizing a new map. However, analysts warn that these new districts may not vote as drawn, complicating the Republican effort to protect their seats. Ballotpedia identifies 46 battleground districts in the House, with 25 held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. The shifting boundaries mean that some areas previously considered safe for one party are now more competitive, forcing candidates to appeal to a broader range of voters than in previous cycles.

Financial resources played a significant role in the race to beat the midterm trend. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history, with Republican committees outraising and outspending their Democratic counterparts. This advantage was bolstered by Trump-affiliated groups and the support of Elon Musk. An analysis of AdImpact data by the Associated Press shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million spent in areas where he won by 10 points or more. Democrats, however, outraised their opponents at the candidate level, focusing their resources on specific races where they believe they can make gains.

The mood among voters reflects the high stakes of the day. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on the current administration, with voters struggling with high prices and expressing anger over an unpopular war with Iran. AP-NORC polling indicates that 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while about 7 in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most of those polled blame the president for high prices. This sentiment is driving voter behavior, with more than 57 million people having already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states.

Republican strategy has focused heavily on turnout and maintaining unity. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout, asserting that if they turn out their voters, they win. President Trump held dozens of rallies, ending his schedule in Salina, Kansas, where he urged voters to pretend he was on the ballot. His travels included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. Many Republican candidates kept a professional distance from the president to appeal to moderate voters. Despite this, Trump continued to make claims about voting fraud, including that noncitizens vote in large numbers, a narrative that some Democrats fear could influence how votes are counted.

Democrats, meanwhile, are described as cautiously optimistic, relying on the anger of the electorate to drive change. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene stated that the American people are angry and want change. The party is focusing on economic issues, such as the cost of living and healthcare. In key Senate races, Democrats are challenging incumbents or running strong challengers in states like Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The party hopes to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades, with key matchups in states such as Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio.

Election administration has also been a point of contention. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, a move critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. These administrative details are crucial as the country prepares to count millions of votes cast in a highly polarized environment.

The implications of the results extend beyond Congress. Wall Street is watching the election closely, with Reuters noting that the results could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker and has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night could also boost potential 2028 candidates, including Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while complicating the path for Vice President JD Vance.