Midterm vote closes with Democrats favored for House, Senate race tight
Over 59 million Americans have already voted, setting the stage for a decisive night that hinges heavily on Republican turnout in key red states.
By Alexei Brooks ·
Voting officially ended today for the 2026 midterm elections, shifting the political focus from polling data to concrete results. The central question for the day is which party will control Congress. Democrats currently hold a double-digit advantage in early voting data, but the final outcome depends on how many Republicans show up at polling places.
More than 59 million ballots were cast before today’s date. This figure represents nearly half of the total votes recorded in the previous midterm election. The early surge has favored the Democratic Party, which is favored to win the House of Representatives.
To take control of the House, Democrats need to flip only three seats. The political environment has shifted in their favor over the past month. Republicans attempted to protect their majority through mid-decade redistricting, but this strategy may not be sufficient to retain the chamber.
The race for the Senate is less predictable. Democrats must flip four seats to gain control. This scenario was considered unlikely at the start of the cycle, but strong candidate recruitment and a difficult national political environment for Republicans have made it a realistic possibility.
North Carolina is the one Senate seat where Democrats are favored to flip. The other competitive races are toss-ups or slight Republican favorites. These contests are taking place in states that Donald Trump won by double digits in the 2024 election. The only exception is Maine.
Republican turnout will determine the Senate outcome. If turnout is high, Democrats may win only one seat. If Republican turnout is low, Democrats could win up to six or seven seats. Michigan is a key target for Republicans because winning it changes the mathematical calculus for Democrats.
Results from Kentucky and Indiana began arriving at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. Many races are expected to be close, and final counts may take days or weeks to complete. Voters are advised to wait for official certification rather than relying on same-night projections.
